Buying
Is a Bali Villa Price Fair? How to Check an Asking Price Against Comparable Listings
Compare the asking price with the median of at least eight similar listings — same area and bedrooms, size within 30%, same tenure and lease length — and see where it falls between their 10th and 90th percentile.
Published 13 October 2026 · Updated 13 October 2026 · 6 min read
What does “fair” mean when there are no sold prices?
Indonesia’s land office records who holds a title, not what was paid for it, so nobody — no agency, portal or valuer — can check a Bali price against completed sales. The only broad evidence is what other owners are asking for similar homes today. A fair price, in practice, is one that a buyer comparing those homes would not find out of line.
That comparison should use the median, not the average. One clifftop listing at ten times the going rate drags an average up; the median ignores it. Every Baliestate figure is a median with its listing count beside it.
Which listings count as comparable?
These are the rules Baliestate’s comparison uses, in the order it loosens them when there are fewer than eight matches. Each loosening is stated next to the result, so you can see what the price was compared with.
- A leasehold sale gets a verdict only while tenure and the lease window still hold. Comparing a 10-year lease with 30-year ones says nothing useful, so the page shows no verdict rather than a misleading one.
- Rentals are compared on the stated monthly rent. A listing that quotes only a yearly or nightly rate is not converted, because dividing by twelve produces a price the owner never offered.
- The same villa listed twice — same price, same size, same neighbourhood — is counted once.
| Rule | Strict | If too few matches |
|---|---|---|
| Area | Same area | Never loosened |
| Type | Villa with villa, apartment with apartment | Dropped first |
| Size | Building (land for a plot) within ±30% | Widened to ±50% |
| Bedrooms | Same count (6+ grouped) | One more or fewer |
| Lease years (sales) | Within ±25% of the subject’s, and at least ±3 years | Dropped |
| Tenure (sales) | Leasehold with leasehold, freehold with freehold | Dropped last |
How do you check a price yourself, step by step?
The same method works by hand, with any listing site. It takes about twenty minutes for one villa.
- 1. Write down the subject’s five facts: area, bedrooms, building size in m², tenure and, for a leasehold, the years left (not the years originally granted).
- 2. Collect at least eight listings that match on all five. If you cannot, widen size first, then bedrooms by one — and note that you did.
- 3. For a sale, divide each price by its building size to get a price per m², and ignore sizes under 20 m², which are typos.
- 4. Sort the prices and take the middle one: that is the median. The values a tenth of the way from each end are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
- 5. Place the subject in that range and name the reason for any gap you can see: view, land, finish, pool, lease length.
- 6. Check how long the listing has been on the market and whether its price has already moved. A long-listed villa at the top of the range has told you something.
How do I read the result?
A price below the median is not proof of a deal. In Bali the most common reason a villa asks less is a lease with fewer years left, which is why the lease window is part of the comparison.
| Where the price sits | What it usually means | What to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Within 3% of the median | Priced like its comparables | Condition, lease terms and what is included |
| Above the median, below the 90th percentile | Normal if there is a visible reason | Which feature justifies the premium |
| Above the 90th percentile | Priced above almost all similar listings | Why, and how long it has been listed |
| Below the median | Possibly good value, possibly a shorter lease or worse condition | Years left, title, access and zoning |
| Under a tenth of the median | Almost always an entry error | Confirm the price and currency in writing |
A worked example: a 2-bedroom leasehold in Canggu
On 6 October 2026, 30 completed 2-bedroom leasehold villas in Canggu listed by Baliestate’s partner agencies stated a price and a size. Their median was IDR 31.3 million per m² of building, and the 10th to 90th percentile ran from IDR 14.7 million to IDR 41.5 million.
A 120 m² villa in that set asking IDR 4.5 billion works out at IDR 37.5 million per m²: about 20% above the median but inside the 90th percentile. That is not unfair on its face, but it needs a reason you can see — a pool, a quieter lane, a recent renovation or more years on the lease than the 25 that was typical. If none applies, the median gives you a documented basis for an offer nearer IDR 3.75 billion (120 × IDR 31.3 million).
What can a price comparison not tell you?
Whether the villa can legally be used the way you intend. Zoning, the land title, the lease extension clause and, for a holiday let, the short-term rental licence decide whether a price is worth paying at all, and none of them shows up in a median. A fair price on a villa built in the green belt is still a bad purchase. The due diligence guide covers those checks.
Common questions
How do I know if a Bali villa is overpriced?
Compare it with at least eight listings in the same area with the same bedrooms, a building size within 30% and, for a sale, the same tenure and similar lease years. If it asks more than 90% of them and you cannot see why, it is priced above its market.
How many comparable listings do I need?
Eight is the target Baliestate uses. Below five it gives no verdict, because a single unusual listing would move the median.
Are Bali price checks based on sold prices?
No. Indonesia has no public register of sale prices, so every Bali price comparison, including Baliestate’s, uses asking prices. Agreed prices are typically lower.
Why does Baliestate show no verdict on some leasehold villas?
Because there were not enough similar villas with the same tenure and a lease length within about 25% of the subject’s. Comparing leases of very different lengths would give a misleading answer.
Is a villa far below the median a bargain?
Check the lease first: a shorter remaining lease is the usual reason. A price under a tenth of the median is almost always a typing or currency error, and Baliestate flags it for review rather than showing it as a discount.
Method as implemented on Baliestate on 13 October 2026. The Canggu example uses partner-agency listings as extracted on 6 October 2026 and does not update itself; /market carries the current medians. Asking prices, not transaction prices.